One-Sided Energy Truce

Ukraine stopped striking Russian refineries at U.S. request, but Russia has not agreed, and overnight fired 39 ballistic missiles hitting Ukraine’s power grid.

Intforming

1. One-Sided Energy Truce

Russia fired 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones at Ukraine overnight, Zelenskyy said, and Russia’s Defense Ministry said it hit six power plants three days after President Trump announced an energy ceasefire.

Ukraine has stopped striking Russian refineries, and the Kremlin has still not said Russia accepted the truce.

Source: The Washington Post, Oct. 14, 2026

2. Saudi-Houthi Oil Strikes

The Saudi-led coalition struck oil facilities west of Yemen’s capital on Tuesday, the Houthi-run broadcaster said.

Hours later a Houthi missile set fire to an Aramco building in Dhahran, and Trump has not said whether U.S. forces will join the Saudi strikes, which the Houthis have threatened to answer by attacking U.S. interests.

Source: The Washington Post, Oct. 13, 2026

3. Hormuz Mine Claim

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a container ship sank Wednesday morning after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that has not been independently verified.

It is the first mine sinking Iran has reported in the war, and neither U.S. Central Command nor the UK Maritime Trade Operations center had confirmed it by Wednesday morning.

Source: The Washington Post, Oct. 14, 2026

4. Britain Speeds Missiles

Britain said it will speed deliveries of Lightweight Multirole Missiles to Ukraine, using £10 million of a £45 million air-defense package for urgent winter needs.

London says the missiles work well against Russia’s jet-powered drones, but they are not built to stop the ballistic missiles that hit Kyiv’s power plants overnight.

Source: UK Prime Minister’s Office (GOV.UK), Oct. 13, 2026

One-Sided Energy Truce

Ukraine has stopped striking Russian refineries since President Trump announced an energy ceasefire. Russia has not confirmed it agreed, and overnight it fired 39 ballistic missiles at Ukraine’s power grid.

Russia fired 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones at Ukraine overnight into Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, three days after President Donald Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” that he said both countries had accepted. Russia’s Defense Ministry said its forces hit six power plants in Kyiv, the surrounding region and Kharkiv. Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said all three of Kyiv’s combined heat and power plants were struck, Zelenskyy said at least 600,000 people lost electricity, and Kyiv police said five people were killed. Ukraine has stopped striking Russian oil refineries, and its last reported refinery strike was on Friday, the Associated Press reported.

Source: The Washington Post, October 14, 2026

The Kremlin has not said that Russia accepted anything. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said only that contacts on the matter continue. Asked on Monday about continued Russian strikes, Trump said there had been “violations on both sides.”

Our judgment is that the administration has pressed Kyiv harder than Moscow this month. Zelenskyy told NPR on Tuesday that the administration warned it could cut off U.S. intelligence sharing unless Ukraine stopped long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries. CNN and CBS News, citing unnamed officials, reported that the warning also covered weapons purchases for Ukraine. Trump said on Tuesday that Washington is “sharing intel.” On Oct. 9 he announced a deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports, and 12 senators from both parties have asked him to reverse it.

Kyiv reported two further problems overnight. Zelenskyy said Ukraine received no warning from partners before the ballistic missiles were launched at Kyiv, the second time this week, and he did not name the partners. Serhii Beskrestnov, Zelenskyy’s adviser on defense technology, said SpaceX had capped the speed at which military Starlink terminals work while moving, without telling Ukraine in advance, and that several combat missions were disrupted. Beskrestnov said the timing “cannot be a coincidence,” but he offered no evidence that the U.S. government asked for the change, and SpaceX has not commented. Our judgment is that the evidence does not show Washington ordered either the Starlink limit or the missing warning. Ukrainian commanders now have to plan for losing either service without notice.

Trump announced a similar energy agreement on Sept. 14, and neither side confirmed it. In March 2025, after a call with Trump, Putin ordered a 30-day halt to strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. Within days each side accused the other of violations, and the Kremlin said the moratorium had expired in April. This time the Kremlin has made no public commitment, and Trump has not accused Russia of breaking one.

Our judgment is that Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian refineries this winter if Russia keeps hitting its power plants, even at the risk of losing U.S. intelligence. Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will respond if Moscow does not agree to an energy ceasefire this winter. Ukraine is still flying long-range drones into Russia. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it shot down 902 of them overnight, and Sberbank said its data center in Saratov was attacked. Kyiv has stopped aiming those drones at refineries, and it can aim them there again. Zelenskyy could still keep the pause to protect U.S. intelligence sharing and weapons purchases, which Ukraine will need through the winter.

Watch whether Ukraine strikes a Russian refinery before the Kremlin confirms the truce, and whether Washington then cuts intelligence sharing.

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